Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 18.778987 22.701416 27.056930 32.226329 38.167465 44.754613 52.582127
2025-02-16 13.086585 18.188750 24.481991 32.698885 43.017489 55.414020 71.287319
2025-02-23 9.712389 15.122294 22.375155 32.558518 46.204770 63.557857 86.948118
2025-03-02 7.336928 12.668128 20.366145 31.872269 48.151171 69.832397 100.275372
2025-03-09 5.816125 11.038615 19.098261 31.818874 50.664058 76.745926 114.608047
2025-03-16 4.308062 9.049770 16.897125 29.991175 50.301719 79.488161 123.237643
2025-03-23 3.687496 8.407696 16.663858 31.044588 54.139471 88.267130 140.640044
2025-03-30 2.953608 7.375273 15.589451 30.566101 55.506791 93.436857 153.053265
2025-04-06 2.641585 7.093728 15.765431 32.142202 60.173749 103.729474 173.408167
2025-04-13 1.941686 5.807223 13.871977 29.882397 58.357279 103.928963 178.608583
2025-04-20 1.665408 5.400112 13.595342 30.458906 61.273319 111.614855 195.491090
2025-04-27 1.458566 5.105754 13.494032 31.330220 64.726473 120.297444 214.256765
2025-05-04 1.225937 4.713699 13.201623 31.961628 68.098328 129.514216 235.112429
2025-05-11 1.026338 4.352593 12.928533 32.631441 71.660687 139.373776 257.702188
2025-05-18 0.820276 3.886978 12.314741 32.505646 73.710692 146.766960 276.611911
2025-05-25 0.631444 3.386303 11.499935 31.821310 74.601063 152.164734 292.425389
2025-06-01 0.505170 3.043652 11.009061 31.768055 76.680673 159.712204 312.118725
2025-06-08 0.353120 2.498853 9.827265 29.942738 75.016697 160.427875 320.170158
2025-06-15 0.305273 2.385027 9.856464 30.994778 79.325454 172.202050 347.755458
2025-06-22 0.233529 2.101286 9.298477 30.516914 80.362222 177.955052 365.023515
2025-06-29 0.210932 2.069538 9.537260 32.090971 85.910225 192.420087 398.219818
2025-07-06 0.136786 1.654514 8.377754 29.834102 82.875492 190.388871 401.842089
2025-07-13 0.113102 1.549168 8.274975 30.409859 86.200545 200.768011 428.261101